Adrian's DeFi Alpha #10: Market Correction | TON | GameFi | New and underfarmed Airdrops
Definitely no financial advice, just insights based on my own journey in DeFi.
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The key developments in Crypto.
Practical insights to act on.
All packaged in a 5-minute read. No sponsored content, no trading chaos. Just insights based on my own journey in DeFi.
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Market Update
Highlighting the key developments and their implications.
Weekly Crypto Bubbles
The global #crypto market cap today is $2.39T, a -0.92% change in the last 24h.
Total trading volume in the last 24h is at $118.3B.
BTC dominance is at 50.68% and #ETH - 17.06%.
$BRETT, the meme on Base, is my winner of the month. Congrats to the blue bear / dog / whatever which actually was one of my top memecoin picks from 2 months ago. Made a nice 5 X without huge risk due to its size and community.
What’s moving the market?
Each halving puts stress on miners, and there is almost always a capitulation event that follows. Miners started selling aggressively when the MT Gox coins moved at the end of May. We don’t have a buy signal just yet, but the German government selling and MT Gox coins have triggered a capitulation event that's gathering steam. Stay safe out there, be careful with leverage. This is a good environment for DCA and spot accumulation.
BTC Miners Dumping: Miners are offloading $BTC fast, leading to a major sell-off. Total reserves have hit a 14-year low.
German Government Selling: The German government sold $195M in $BTC, with more to come.
Mt. Gox FUD: The distribution of 140,000 $BTC from Mt. Gox is coming sooner than expected, causing market panic.
Market Update: Altcoin Season
Where's Altcoin Season?
Altcoin season feels off. The usual pump from BTC and ETH hasn’t transitioned to altcoins. Here’s why:
VC Gains: VCs are cashing out early, pushing prices down when tokens hit public markets. In past cycles, everyone had fairer access to solid projects early on with launchpads and ICOs. Now, early projects are raising funds privately, and retail doesn’t get a piece of the action.
Projects hit public markets only after big returns are already made. VCs who got their 10x in private rounds dump their tokens as soon as they unlock, creating constant selling pressure and driving prices down.
BTC ETF Focus: Institutional money is flowing into BTC ETFs, not altcoins, stalling the typical rotation. This cycle’s pumps are mainly driven by institutions pouring money into BTC ETFs, pushing only BTC prices. Usually, altcoin season kicks off when degens rotate gains from BTC to other assets. But with ETFs, gains this simply doesn’t happen.
High-FDV, Low Float Tokens: Many new tokens are high-FDV and low float, meaning only a small percentage of tokens are circulating compared to the total supply. This gives a misleading impression of value and puts downward pressure on prices as more tokens enter the market.
Retail Absence: Retail investors haven’t returned. In 2021, $BTC at $70k drew 4M views per day on YouTube for crypto content. Now, $BTC at $70k in 2024 only gets 800k views per day. Same trend on X. We need a big BTC move or a super app (maybe TON?) to bring retail back.
Altcoin Selloff
→ Consequence: The OTHERS/ BTC chart looks awful
I.e. altcoins are way down but my thesis stays the same. AI x Crypto will come back this summer and I am still buying. If you want to know what exactly, get a free premium subscription by sharing this newsletter:
Alpha 1: Telegram’s TON: The Emerging Ecosystem
TON is linked with Telegram, giving it access to 900M users. The ecosystem is growing fast, with significant increases in TVL, daily active addresses, and transactions.
Currently, it has about $1.034B in TVL. While that is great, the speed of growth is even more impressive. On January 1st, 2024, it had only $71M in TVL.
Other Numbers have also been crazy since the beginning of the year:
Daily active addresses went from 22.4k to 343k.
Daily transactions went from 431.3k to 4.3M.
The 7 day DEX trading volume went from $653.4k to $160M.
Key projects include:
Catizen AI & Hamster Kombat: Mini-games on the platform with impressive user numbers.
Tonstakers: Leading liquid staking project offering 3.17% APY.
Resistance Dog: Leading memecoin on TON. Other interesting memecoins: durev, WIF (not the Solana WIF but a bigger dog with hoodie)
Storm Trade: First decentralized derivatives platform on TON.
Check also Ton.app out for a comprehensive list of projects.
TON Games Special
Focus for Airdrops of Telegram games on these upcoming early gems:
Pirate Frenzy by @PirateClash_HQ: This Mini App is like Catizen but cooler, featuring sharks, orcas, and other deadly maritime creatures. The goal? Collect as many PEARLs as possible. Dive in early for the best rewards! Start here.
Capytal War: The meme culture is strong with this one. Gamble on a slot machine and spin 3 cannons to attack an opponent. Spin 3 hooks to steal coins from an opponent. Start here.
Flagship's Portfolio Game by @FlagshipFYI: Sharpen your crypto investment skills while having fun! Predict if Flagship's Portfolio will rise or fall to earn points. Try it now.
Alpha 2: New Airdrop Opportunities
Superform Public Testnet
This opportunity allows you to earn Yield, Superform XP, SuperFrens NFTs, and Avantis XP by targeting two dApps with one action.
I was able to deposit USDC from Base into the Senior Tranche vault.
Check out the details here.
Nubit Node
Nubit is calling on users to join Alpha Testnet Phase 2 by running a light node. This helps scale the future of Nubit. Participating in this testnet phase is a great way to get involved early and potentially earn rewards for your efforts.
More info here.
Rabby
Rabby is offering users a chance to claim Rabby Points before the deadline of June 30th at 11:59 pm UTC+0. If you haven’t claimed your points yet, now is the time. Use the Rabby extension to get your points and stay ahead. And use my code “RABBYREF” if you want to support me.
Learn more here.
Recap & Airdrop Claims
Make sure you don’t miss out on the latest airdrop claims and TGEs this week.
Sonic Incentivized Testnet
Sonic is launching its incentivized testnet, the Sonic Testnet Odyssey. This is the first atomic SVM Layer 2 built on Solana. They raised $12M and launched an incentivized testnet. During this campaign, you collect “Rings” by interacting with the chain and its Dapps, daily check-ins, and referrals.
Their initial game partners include Jogo Jogo, Rage Effect, FoMoney, Lumiterra, and Kepler Homes, which will be gradually launched on the platform. Sonic looks like a platform that can push the overall Solana gaming scene forward, so I’d start following the games that partner with them.
Get started here.
Ancient 8 Games
Last week, Ancient8 released the final week of its P2A campaign: the Airdrop Leaderboard. It’s a typical campaign where you:
Complete various tasks related to dApps within their ecosystem, such as playing Pirate Clash.
Earn a percentage of the points your referred friends earn.
It still seemed largely under-farmed with less than 10K people. Ancient8 is a gaming chain on Optimism, with Zone9 as one of the larger games on the platform. If you haven’t joined yet, it’s a great time to jump in.
Join the fun here.
Earn Ronin Week
It’s Earn Ronin Week! From June 24th to 30th, you can participate in games powered by the Ronin Network and earn rewards. Make sure you have a Ronin wallet set up to join in on the action and boost your earnings.
Find out more here.
Lumiterra
Alpha 2: Superform & Avantis
Superposition Public Testnet
Superposition is launching its Public Testnet today! Built on top of Arbitrum One, it’s an L3 chain with a bold claim: users get paid for using it. Yes, you read that right. Dive in early to be part of this innovative project and earn as you interact with the network. This opportunity allows you to earn Yield, Superform XP, SuperFrens NFTs, and Avantis XP by targeting both dApps with one action.
Check out the details here.
Nubit Node
Nubit is calling on users to join Alpha Testnet Phase 2 by running a light node. This helps scale the future of Nubit. Participating in this testnet phase is a great way to get involved early and potentially earn rewards for your efforts.
More info here.
Rabby
Rabby is offering users a chance to claim Rabby Points before the deadline of June 30th at 11:59 pm UTC+0. If you haven’t claimed your points yet, now is the time. Use the Rabby extension to get your points and stay ahead.
Learn more here.
Sonic Incentivized Testnet
The “Solana SVM Chain” raised $12M and has launched its incentivized testnet. During this campaign, you collect “Rings” by interacting with the chain and its Dapps (games), daily check-ins, and referrals.
Their initial game partners include Jogo Jogo, Rage Effect, FoMoney, Lumiterra, and Kepler Homes, which will be gradually launched on the platform. Sonic looks like a platform that can push the overall Solana gaming scene forward, so I’d start following the games that partner with them.
Get started here.
Earn Ronin Week
It’s Earn Ronin Week! From June 24th to 30th, you can participate in games powered by the Ronin Network and earn rewards. Make sure you have a Ronin wallet set up to join in on the action and boost your earnings.
Find out more here.
Lumiterra: The Next Web3 MMO?
Lumiterra, an MMORPG open-world survival crafting game, has had two major developments recently:
Sonic announced Lumiterra as their flagship game.
Lumiterra migrated to the Ronin Network.
In Lumiterra, players battle, farm, and explore, creating a rich and engaging experience. Lumiterra is part of Lumi Finance, a DeFi growth flywheel that increases liquidity inside the game through prize pools and P2A rewards.
The native currency of Lumiterra, LUDAMOON ($LUA), was recently sold in a pre-sale. Players who got in early are in a prime position for the upcoming closed beta test, where $1M in prizes will be up for grabs. The beta, accessible through Earn Alliance’s Ronin Week, will use RON as the primary in-game currency.
Lumiterra could become a significant player in the Web3 MMO space, ticking many of the same boxes that made Big Time successful: guilds, a cult-like community, Asian audience appeal, a deep economy, and engaging gameplay.
Explore Lumiterra here.
Ancient8: Play-to-Airdrop Campaign
Ancient8 released the final week of its P2A campaign: the Airdrop Leaderboard. It’s a typical campaign where you:
Complete various tasks related to dApps within their ecosystem, such as playing Pirate Clash.
Earn a percentage of the points your referred friends earn.
It is still seemed largely under-farmed with less than 10K people. Ancient8 is a gaming chain on Optimism, with Zone9 as one of the larger games on the platform. If you haven’t joined yet, it’s a great time to jump in and rack up those points.
Join the fun here.
As a clever farmer, keep farming undiluted and under-the-radar projects. Check out DeFillama and Dropstab for the latest opportunities.
Recap & Airdrop Claims
Make sure you don’t miss out on the latest airdrop claims and TGEs this week.
Project Updates
Ethereum Name Service: New v2 turning ENS into an L2.
EtherFi: Planning to use up to 50% of protocol revenue to buy ETHFI.
Maverick Protocol: Launched V2 on multiple chains.
Drift Protocol: Launched $DRIFT staking with double voting power and fee share.
Jupiter Finance: Plans to reduce $JUP supply by 30%.
Wrap Up
This week’s takeaways:
Bitcoin's drop is due to miner pressure, German sales, and Mt. Gox FUD.
Altcoin season is lagging due to VC gains, BTC ETF focus, and high-FDV tokens.
TON Network is a strong emerging DeFi player with a growing ecosystem.
GameFi is hot!
Till next time, stay safe!
Adrian
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Holy Moly we the market got rekt and Altcoins are down big time. Of course there are countless opportunities to buy some nice dips again.
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