Adrian's DeFi Alpha #43: Geopolitical Shock Waves | Crypto Weathers Storm | AI Mindshare Recovery | $100M Agent Volume
Why Bitcoin's resilience during Iran strikes signals stronger bull market foundations ahead and how $11M Giza Protocol is revolutionizing autonomous finance.
We are back with the best DeFi plays in 2025. If you followed the guidance from this alpha letter and my Telegram group you’ll have made great gains since the April lows. Now we are going to buy the dip to be positioned for the upcoming altseason.
Hello Friend!
Last week, the world shifted. While most of us were sleeping, "Operation Midnight Hammer" unfolded—eight B-2 bombers and submarine-launched Tomahawks hitting Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. The U.S. claims "monumental" damage while Iran downplays it as "superficial." Russia's warning about supplying nukes to Iran, emergency talks in Moscow, and Iran's parliament voting to potentially close the Strait of Hormuz — suddenly our cozy crypto bull run feels a lot more fragile.
But here comes what's fascinating: Despite headlines screaming escalation, markets are surprisingly calm. U.S. futures are actually up, oil rose modestly, and Bitcoin hasn't crashed like you'd expect. But don't mistake calm for safety — oil and volatility are quietly ticking upward, and Iran's already launched retaliatory strikes on Israel.
Here's the thing markets know but headlines miss: Uncertainty creates volatility, but geopolitical crises create something even more powerful — central bank responses. And if there's one thing that guarantees money printing faster than a pandemic, it's a conflict threatening global energy supplies.
Smart money doesn't panic at headlines. They position for what comes after the shock. Let’s follow this approach.
️ On today's Episode:
📈 Market Update – Why markets stayed calm despite WW3 fears, AI agents mindshare recovery at 36%
🐂 Alpha Insights – Giza Protocol's $100M autonomous trading proof, LoopedHYPE airdrop strategy, More Airdrops worth paying attention to
💎 The Premium Section with my buys on this dip to easily to profit from volatility
Highlighting the key developments in Crypto and their implications.
Weekly Crypto Bubbles
→ A sea of red due to war FUD.
→ KAIA, the Telegram TON chain of Asia still up on the weekly.
It’s still not over
The immediate crypto reaction was swift but measured. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100K as panic indicators spiked, with Twitter buzzing about "World War III." But the Fear & Greed Index (at 37), while flashing concern, hasn't hit the extreme fear levels we saw during major market crashes.
What's telling is the market's underlying resilience. Despite the geopolitical drama unfolding, we're not seeing the capitulation you'd expect from a cycle-ending event. Instead, this feels like a temporary shock against a backdrop of fundamentally strong conditions.
The 12-week global money supply lead indicator has been screaming "higher prices ahead" for weeks. And historically? Wars don't end bull runs—they accelerate liquidity injections. The Federal Reserve's favorite excuse for emergency measures just got a major upgrade.
Looking at previous conflicts, markets typically recover within weeks once initial uncertainty fades. The dot-com bubble survived the Kosovo War, and crypto has weathered everything from trade wars to pandemics. The infrastructure for the next leg up—ETF inflows, institutional adoption, improving regulatory clarity—remains intact.
Meanwhile, something interesting is happening in AI narratives. After hitting 60% mindshare last September, AI interest dropped to 30% but has bounced back to 36%. With fresh models from OpenAI, Claude, and Gemini on the horizon, we could see that number climb even higher.
Especially the Virtuals ecosystem continues powering much of this recovery through their Genesis launchpad. → More on Virtuals in the alpha section of this newsletter.
Good projects and opportunities I discovered
Token Alpha Giza Protocol ($GIZA)
Giza Protocol is already proving that autonomous AI agents managing real money isn't science fiction—it's happening right now.
With a $11M market cap and 31k holders, Giza sits at the intersection of AI and DeFi in a way that actually works.
Their flagship agent ARMA has autonomously managed over $35M in capital, delivering 8-15% APR while executing $100M+ in trading volume across 150,000+ transactions.
Think about that for a second: an AI agent making nine-figure financial decisions without human intervention, and nailing most of them.
What sets Giza apart isn't just the tech — it's the team. Led by executives from Sony, Johnson & Johnson, and BBVA, this isn't just a typical crypto anon project. They've been building since 2022, backed by Coinbase Ventures, CoinFund, and Arrington Capital.
The technical stack includes: Zero-knowledge machine learning (zkML), smart account infrastructure, and EigenLayer's decentralized validation. Every move the agents make is cryptographically provable, solving the trust problem that plagues centralized robo-advisors.
Recent partnerships with RE7 Capital and Rainbow Wallet show enterprise adoption is real. ARMA is already integrated into Rainbow's wallet UX, making autonomous finance accessible to retail users.
Upcoming catalysts to watch:
Solver Agent launch in Q3 2025 (market-making agents)
Cross-chain expansion beyond Ethereum and Base
Decentralized GPU operator network
Major wallet integrations (rumored Coinbase Wallet)
The risks: High token inflation from vesting schedules could create sell pressure. The team streams tokens daily rather than large unlocks, but it's still worth monitoring. Technical complexity also means more potential failure points.
At current prices, Giza offers exposure to the autonomous agent narrative with proven real-world traction. As Base's liquidity grows and AI agents gain mindshare, projects like Giza with actual utility could see explosive growth.
→ Trading at $0.1297 (–12.4% in 24 h) with an $11.08 M market cap, GIZA shows clear bearish momentum and sits roughly 73% below its $0.487 ATH set on June 8, 2025. For me it’s a small, risky AI Agent play: with a massive fully diluted valuation of $128.57 M dwarfing its $11.07 M market cap — i.e., inflation is huge and must be offset by sustained buy demand — making it difficult as a long-term hold but attractive at the current valuation.
Alpha 2: Airdrop Opportunities
LoopedHYPE opened Phase-2 airdrop registration, with 45% of LOOP token supply reserved for early users.
Ongoing Strategy: provide liquidity on HyperSwap using LHYPE/HYPE pairs in the 0.01% fee pool for maximum points boost.
For narrow range positions, set tight price ranges if you don't want active management.
This should be part of a broader HyperEVM airdrop farming strategy. I am consolidating my strategy currently to publish it in my airdrop guide soon.
🗳️ Proposals
LayerZero → Vote with your tokens for an upcoming airdrop
🌌 Galxe
• Connect with Mitosis : Essential Quest - Galxe → Social tasks for Mitosis airdrop
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